So far, the great hope, that rising temperatures could reduce the spread of the Coronavirus stock. This is, at least in the case of the flu of the case. Now, researchers have found, however: In the coming warm months, the Virus continues to spread – maybe even better than before.
The Coronavirus has now conquered the whole world. What was once a strange lung disease from China, became a global pandemic. And although the world in almost all countries, infections have been detected, particularly those in the Northern hemisphere affected. Regions in temperate climate zones.
The southern hemisphere, Africa, the tropics and the North of South America seem to be strongly of the spread of the Virus affected. The presumption suggests that Sars-CoV-2 feels in the heat well. That warm temperatures reduce its spread.
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The heat-Sars-CoV-2 weakens?
Researchers considered that the Coronavirus, will be similar to the flu, in the spring and summer weaker. “If it is hot, the corona virus is normally weaker and the disease weakens. The summer could be our best ally,“ said about a virologist Alexander Kekulé.
Christian Drosten said that in addition to warmer temperatures, but also to stronger UV light and dryness, “be conducive to the transmission of the virus”. That does not mean, however, that the pathogen will be gone in the summer, a new study shows.
Researchers determined now, at what temperatures the Virus feels the most comfortable. Your results the Biogeographen Miguel Araújo from the natural science national Museum in Madrid and Babak Naimi, from the Portuguese University of Évora on the Pre-Print-Server “medRxiv published”.
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Sars-CoV-2 distributed with nine degrees
The conclusion of the scientists: At the best the Virus is transferred at nine degrees Celsius. Thus, in the future, countries in the southern hemisphere, Africa, and the tropics could remain through the whole year, largely spared. For Europe this means, however: in the coming months will spread the Virus further.
The scientists based their analysis on the case numbers, which were collected by the Johns Hopkins University in the first three months of this year. They tried to take into account only the local chains of Infection. Imported cases, they tried to exclude.
The case numbers, the researchers in connection with the climate data of the affected regions, geographical factors they included in their investigation. Their model led to the following result: The climatic influence on the Virus is greater than the geographical.
The Virus got spread in the whole world. The different propagation in certain regions, however, was more pronounced and longer-lasting, the result of the scientists on the local temperature and humidity.
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Pathogens avoiding warm and humid climate
So far, it has been shown that the Virus warm, humid climates, avoid, instead, prefer it mostly dry and temperate climate. When looking at the registered cases of disease, the model showed an optimum monthly average temperature of six degrees Celsius.
The scientists took into account also the geographical and temporal distribution, so that an average value of around 9 degrees Celsius with a rainfall of 72 millimetres over three months showed. This optimum temperature is in Germany in the months of April and may, but in October reached.
The model fit to the spread of the Virus, we have seen in the first quarter of the year. The calculations, the fact that the pathogen is felt, among other things, in Eastern China, and southern Europe particularly well, and had widespread support.
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Forecast for the year 2020
For the Rest of the year, the scientists make a prediction. The results show that only a very hot summer would weaken the risk of Transmission to the end of June, Mr optimal Bedinungegen rule here, however. Thus, the Virus could be spread in Germany in the coming months even better than before.
In the second quarter, i.e. from April to June are the conditions for the Virus, especially in Central and Northern Europe, West of Russia, to the North of the United States and Canada.
In the third quarter, from July to September, the climatic optimum, especially in the Northern polar region, the Tibetan plateau, the South coast of South Africa, the southern coast of Australia, and the southern Parts of South America are.
For the fourth quarter, from October to December, calculated the researchers, however, have a similar distribution as in the first months of the year, but with a slightly weaker expansion.
Reported corona virus cases in Germany (click on your state)
German scientists fear spreading in Southeast Asia
German researchers at the Helmholtz Zentrum in Munich, calculated, also, where the Virus when it is spread. Their forecasts are still gloomy, as the Portuguese and Spanish researchers. In the first few months, the scientists Mikhail Bariotakis identified a similar pattern of distribution to fear, but in the spring and summer there is also a high risk in Southeast Asia.
The danger: The Virus could spread from there, again and again, in temperate climate zones, seasonal, similar to the Influenza. Their study, the German scientists published also on the Pre-Print-Server “medRxiv”.
You can see in the Video: Where is Coronavirus? Real-time map showing the spread of the disease
FOCUS Online/Wochit you will See in the Video: Where occurs Coronavirus on? Real-time map showing the spread of the disease
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